Victor Junior Godinez V.

Graduate Student / Analyst, None
  • None
  • Mexico

Influencer Of

Recent Comments

Dear Mr. Anthony Gooch,

I think that will be the moment when the OECD by your Leadership and Mr. Gurria too, make a more "agressive" stimulus to all the OECD members in order to open the doors to the innovation process with "Sense of Urgency" , because the "Geopolitics"  can defeat the "Geoeconomics" and with more inclusive management to empower womens who have been showing an example of loyalty and ought but at every moment they need the "strategical leadership" of a men who support them. If we take in consideration the founder principles of our cultural civilization -no religiuos- Occidental vision had been construct around the family. The "sexeconomics" will be erradicated.

More inclusive devolopment only can be support with education, and the IT plataforms still the way, but we know how difficult have been this change, more even in generations who suffering the "social pain" and today more and more people suffer "technological stress". -The uncertainity promotes more stress and affect Decision-Making process, according to the next sources, will be act now :

The Economist Intelligence Unit special report : Industries 2018 The global economy in 2018 :

"The global economy in 2018 :The global economy has been at its healthiest
for some time in 2017, but thiswill prove a fleeting state.
Inflation will pick up and central banks will begin
to tighten somewhat more aggressively. The European Central Bank (ECB)
will start to taper its quantitative easing in 2018. Moreover, political risk
is at its highest level for years: there is long-term policy uncertainty in the
US, little clarity on Brexit negotiations in the EU, and North Korea is flexing
its muscles. Global GDP growth will thus tail off slightly in 2018, to 2.7% at
market exchange rates.

 The non-OECD world will manage to grow by 4.4%, while the expansion among OECD countries will slow gently to 2%."

European Strategy and Police Analysis System: 

"Three structural `revolutions’ that are forging a more complex and insecure world - economic
and technological, social and democratic, and geopolitical - that the authors believe these trends may bring about, as well as the challenges that they may imply for the European Union.
1) Three revolutions forging a more complex and insecure world


■ An economic and technological revolution: the convergence
of technologies and the proliferation of tools
available to large multitudes will transform economies
and societies. Huge opportunities will result in terms of
productivity, welfare gains and individual empowerment.
However, societal disruptions may include a further rise of
unemployment, increasing inequalities and the impoverishment
of the middle classes in developed countries,
including in Europe.

■ A social and democratic revolution: More empowered
and better connected individuals will be more creative,
more dynamic and less wedded to life-time jobs, but they
will also be more demanding and critical. Evolution such
as this could allow countries to fundamentally rejuvenate
their ‘social contracts’ and to invent new forms of
governance. But it will make it more difficult to design
collective agreements and to shape common approaches
through the traditional structures, such as political parties
or trade unions. Anti-establishment feeling may rise
further, as well as recourse to less traditional and more
local initiatives. Pressure will increase for greater accountability
and transparency at the different levels of
governance.


■ A geopolitical revolution: Asia’s rise looks set to continue
and the roughly two centuries of global dominance by the
European continent and the United States are drawing to
a close. Together with the emergence of other powers in
Africa and Latin America, this will lead to an increasingly
multi-polar world. Globalisation will continue but will be
increasingly driven by new actors with different values.
More confrontational modes between key actors may result."

I will considering  the integration of North-America as one region,  would be a succesful model of Co-operation beetwen 3 OECD members, but if we take Mexico case, a Country with a tremendous disparity and inequiality, with a lack of skilled workers, with the lower rate of productivity and years of education, also a fragmented healthcare system despite the fact that Science and Technology still lost in corruption, the digitalisation process can be the bridge to the change, because Mexico isn´t a poor country. paradojical richer in ignorance towards a wealthy middle-class but without the human capital (under25 years) to make a critic mass, and Demography is destine, but can be the opportunity for young and educated people of Centro-America, India.... 

Office of the  Director of  National Intelligence, Paradox of Progress :

"The North American region will be tested by growing social and political pressures in the next five years, especially if economic growth remains lackluster and fails to generate broader prosperity. With economies ranging from the United States to Dominica, conditions and dynamics vary dramatically, but governments across the region are finding it harder to manage rising public demands for greater economic and social stability at a time when budget constraints and debts are limiting options. Public frustration is high throughout much of the region, because uncertainty about economic conditions and social changes is rising at the same time that trust in most governments is declining.

The health of the US economy will remain the prime variable for the region, given its large size and close links. The US recovery from the 2008 financial crisis has been slower and harder than after previous downturns, and most forecasts expect US economic growth to be modest—probably not strong enough to boost growth across the region—for the next several years. Economists are divided, however, over how long the current recovery might continue. Some, focusing on the current recovery’s seven-year span, warn the US economy already is “overdue” for another recession based on historical averages, while others observe that periods of expansion have been longer—up to 10 years—in recent decades. Whenever the next US recession hits, it will reverberate through the region by reducing US demand for goods and the massive southward flow of remittances.

Even in an increasingly diversified country like Mexico, remittances from the United States, still account for around 2 percent of GDP, and they comprise as much as 20 percent of the economy in Haiti. Central America would be particularly vulnerable, with already struggling economies in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua deriving 10 to 20 percent of their GDP from remittances.
A US economic downturn would also further close a traditional safety valve for desperate people who seek work in the United States as well as reduce the flow of remittances from the United States. The state of the US economy historically also has had a significant impact on Canadian growth patterns because of the large volume of bilateral trade.


Mexico’s economic and social reforms also will probably have muted political impact within the country and region. President Pena Nieto has enacted wide-ranging reforms in key industries—such as oil, communications, and finance—as well as education in an effort to enhance Mexico’s competitiveness, but growth has not increased significantly so far, and public support has soured amid corruption allegations, persistent violence, a weakening peso, and domestic crises such as the disappearance of 43 students at a demonstration in 2014. Major reforms, such as opening Mexico’s oil industry to foreign investment, take time to bear fruit, but antigovernment protests could escalate if the disappointments remain more apparent than the benefits in the next several years.

With presidential elections in 2018 and Pena Nieto limited to one term, voters may lean toward a more leftist opposition that pushes to roll back reforms and trade deals if reforms do not reduce Mexico’s stark economic divide.

Moreover, the success or failure of Mexico’s high-profile reforms might affect the willingness of other countries in the region to take similar political risks"

Thanks very much for this Forum Network:  that will be a source of change under your leadership. Because I am sure that We are more people like me, who have not fear to the impossible. An the only way to things happen are making happen. 

ALL THE BEST,